ScanScor Policy: Expired Prediction Windows and Re-Qualification

⏱ Core Rule: Expired Means Expired

If a prediction window expires, it is closed permanently. We do not extend windows after the fact. The only valid next question is: Does this ticker qualify right now for a NEW prediction?

📏 1) Market Cap Range (Size Filter)

• Too small: below ~$5M market cap (unstable and easily manipulated)
• Too big: above ~$900M market cap (reduced asymmetry; 10x moves become unlikely)
• Preferred sweet spot: roughly $20M–$500M (room for 1x–10x outcomes)

🚀 2) Asymmetric Upside (Why It’s Worth Predicting)

• Must plausibly support a meaningful move (often 1x–2x, and sometimes 5x–10x in best-case scenarios).
• If the best-case outcome looks like a modest drift (e.g., 20–40%), it usually does not qualify.

📰 3) News Density (Avoid Diluted Signals)

• Tickers that generate constant press releases, repetitive “updates,” or ongoing PR noise can be disqualified.
• We prefer a clearer catalyst environment where the market can react to a distinct event.

📉 4) Not in a Recovery Phase (No Chasing)

• A ticker generally does not qualify if it is currently spiking, has just spiked, or is unwinding from a recent breakout.
• We prefer setups that have had time to base, compress, and gestate.

🗓 5) Post-Expiration Reality Check (Silence Is Data)

• If the catalyst fails to arrive on time, the market often re-prices the ticker based on uncertainty.
• A missed timing window can weaken or invalidate the thesis even if no explicit bad news appears.
• After expiration, we treat the ticker as “fresh” and require it to earn selection again under current conditions.

⚠️ The Controlled Exception: A “Living Thesis” With a Credible Delay

In rare cases, a thesis may remain intact but arrive late due to a credible, external delay mechanism. This is an override and is never automatic.

• Thesis still intact: no disconfirming evidence, no structural breakdown, no thesis-killing dilution.
• Credible delay mechanism: e.g., regulatory timing delays, government shutdown impact, embargoed trial data release timing, scheduled conference disclosure, or other explainable timing constraints.
• Human review required: we do not allow automation to “revive” expired windows.

👥 Human Review and Documentation (Transparency Policy)

ScanScor includes real human review for edge cases, especially when a prediction window expires and a potential exception is considered. When we review an expired ticker, we document the determination directly in the WordPress Prediction Post.

• We explain why the original window expired and what changed (or did not change).
• We state whether the ticker does or does not qualify again right now.
• If a new prediction is warranted, we issue it promptly (new window, new thesis timing) and then move on.

📝 Summary

• Expired means expired. We do not extend prediction windows.
• Re-qualification is required. The ticker must meet current conditions, not past conditions.
• Silence is data. A missing catalyst can degrade or invalidate the thesis.
• Exception is controlled. Only credible delay + intact thesis + documented human review can justify a new prediction.